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Thread: Population drain from WNY is speeding up

  1. #1
    Member Curmudgeon's Avatar
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    Population drain from WNY is speeding up

    from the Bflo news....

    Buffalo Niagara loss soars in last 5 years

    Buffalo Niagara lost more people in the past five years than it did during the entire 1990s, according to Census Bureau estimates scheduled to be released today.
    Only halfway into this decade, the population in Erie and Niagara counties already has dropped by 22,400 people.

    The estimated losses are significant, considering the region's population decreased by just over 19,000 people from 1990 to 2000.

    So not only does the region's population continue to fall, but the decline appears to be speeding up.

    Buffalo took the largest hit - down nearly 13,000 people during the past five years, dropping the city's population to an estimated 279,745.

    This is a problem in cities throughout upstate New York.

    Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse all saw population decreases of about 4 percent or more between the 2000 census and July of last year, when the latest estimates were calculated.

    The numbers aren't surprising, but no less alarming, said Robert B. Ward, director of research for the Business Council of New York.

    "Buffalo and other cities in upstate have been declining for a half-century now," Ward said. "We keep hoping something will turn that around, but unfortunately we haven't seen it."

    Ward cautioned that population estimates - updated by the Census Bureau each year using birth and death records, tax return data and building permit numbers - can look different from when the actual head count is conducted every 10 years.

    Before the 2000 census, for example, the Census Bureau underestimated Erie County's population by about 24,000 people. Places with large numbers of college students and immigrants can be particularly tricky when coming up with estimates, experts said.

    Nonetheless, the losses in Western New York are evident.

    "I'm afraid so," said Warren A. Brown, who is with Cornell University's Institute for Social and Economic Research. "The population in Western New York hasn't hit bottom yet."

    In fact, the estimates are on target with a recent study by the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, which projected the population in Buffalo Niagara region would drop by more than 65,000 people between 2000 and 2020.

    Brown, who contracts with the state to review census estimates, summed up the problem simply: "It's jobs, jobs, jobs," he said.

    Erie County's population dropped the past five years by 19,500, or 2.1 percent, to 930,700, estimates show. During the same period, Niagara County's population decreased by 2,800 people, or 1.3 percent, to 217,000.
    Data is not the plural of Anecdote.

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    It makes you wonder just how low these numbers can go.

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    Quote Originally Posted by atotaltotalfan2001
    It makes you wonder just how low these numbers can go.

    Determine how many public union employees there are in this area and you'll know where it'll bottom out at.

  4. #4
    Member Curmudgeon's Avatar
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    Determine how many public union employees there are in this area and you'll know where it'll bottom out at.
    As funny as it is correct!!!
    Data is not the plural of Anecdote.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NoCtUrNaL
    Determine how many public union employees there are in this area and you'll know where it'll bottom out at.
    don't forget our public welfare recipients, winters are rough, but the benefits are worth it

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    Member citymouse's Avatar
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    I'll still be here. Don't forget to write, and don't let the door hit you in the ass.
    "If you want to know what God thinks of money just look at the people he gave it to."

    By the way, what happened to biker? I miss the old coot.

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    Member 300miles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by citymouse
    I'll still be here. Don't forget to write, and don't let the door hit you in the ass.
    How will you get paid after all the taxpayers have left?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 300miles
    How will you get paid after all the taxpayers have left?

    Guess he'll be paying himself. I think by that time, though, he'll have to accept a pay cut -- unless he's willing to raise his property taxes A LOT.

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    Member buffy's Avatar
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    Don't forget to write, and don't let the door hit you in the ass.
    No one I KNOW has ever looked back as far as jobs/taxes go (the beauty of the area is another matter), but, friends left, relatives, and now, my oldest child.

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    Member LaNdReW's Avatar
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    Big But

    The average age of our residents has decreased from 38 to 34.

    Maybe all the retirees really are moving to Gods waiting room (and taking their pensions with them).
    "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross." - Sinclair Lewis (1935)

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    Why are they comparing the new estimate against the actual count. The past estimates have been shown to be off by upto 30,000. Shouldn't they compare this estimate against the 1996 estimate?
    Americans don't solve social problems...they just move away from them

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    Quote Originally Posted by LaNdReW
    The average age of our residents has decreased from 38 to 34.

    Maybe all the retirees really are moving to Gods waiting room (and taking their pensions with them).
    Is that right?

    Are you looking at the same report?

    Your observation is counter-intuitive to both the original article on this thread and what my eyeballs see in the supermarkets each week.
    Truth springs from argument among friends.

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    Read here for another point of view

    http://www.buffalorising.com/city/ar...ate_census.php. This was also on channel 4 news
    Americans don't solve social problems...they just move away from them

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    Interesting counterpoint.

    Living in the City for over thirty years, I can tell you I personally feel that the City seems to have more activity with young folks than the 'burbs do. The City, while still losing people overall, seems to be evolving.

    All those new rehabs/conversions are part of this evolution.

    It is not irreconcilable to me that the City is still losing population, but still may have a new, positive future. Just smaller.

    The 'burbs, on the other hand, seem to be on the verge of a major population drop. Particularly the inner ring.
    Truth springs from argument among friends.

  15. #15
    Member citymouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 300miles
    How will you get paid after all the taxpayers have left?

    My pension is sound and in two years I can retire. I'm not worried about it.
    "If you want to know what God thinks of money just look at the people he gave it to."

    By the way, what happened to biker? I miss the old coot.

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