WNY Mega Poplation Loss

[jennifer7]

The New 2005 Census is out
www.census.gov
go to population Finder

WNY Lost about 28,000 people between 4/2000 & 6/2005

Erie County lost almost 20,000
4/2000 Population 950,296
6/2005 Population 930,703

[atotaltotalfan2001]

The New 2005 Census is out
www.census.gov
go to population Finder

WNY Lost about 28,000 people between 4/2000 & 6/2005

Erie County lost almost 20,000
4/2000 Population 950,296
6/2005 Population 930,703

That's not mega, compared to the exodus of past decades. But isn't it sad that I can say that, and it is absolutely true? The outmigration seems to be slowing, but you can bleed to death either in a hurry or a long time. We seem to be on the path to the latter.

The interesting thing is that the loss isn't just confined to Buffalo. Even the so called "hot spots" for growth have slown way down. I was looking at school enrollments yesterday and noticed a clear sign that this area continues to erode: Of the 27 districts (not including Buffalo) in Erie County, half lost enrollment this year compared to last (though almost as many lost enrollment before that too).

Most of the rest had enrollment gains of 1 or less percent, except for booming Clarence, which had a 2 percent gain.

Of course, the spending and tax increases were MUCH higher, but that's a different story.

[ForestBird]

20,000 out of 950,000 in 5 years is minor, and may even be due to the declining birth rate in Erie County. The rest of the overpopulated world should be so lucky. I'd much rather live where population gradually declines (though that won't continue forever) than where more and more people are cramming themselves, destroying the environment - as in California.

[jennifer7]

Erie County Population:
1990 968,532
2000 950,265
previously it took 10 years to lose about 18,000

2000 950,265
2005 930,703

Erie County already lost almost 20,000 in just 5 years

Actually Every year the number of Population leaving is increasing:
6/2003 2,132 941,989 to 939,849
6/2004 3,903 939,849 to 935,946
6/2005 5,243 935,946 to 930,703
6/2006 coming soon !

[atotaltotalfan2001]

Erie County Population:
1990 968,532
2000 950,265
previously it took 10 years to lose about 18,000

2000 950,265
2005 930,703

Erie County already lost almost 20,000 in just 5 years

Actually Every year the number of Population leaving is increasing:
6/2003 2,132 941,989 to 939,849
6/2004 3,903 939,849 to 935,946
6/2005 5,243 935,946 to 930,703
6/2006 coming soon !

Good point.

What is really interesting is that population losses aren't just in Buffalo, which was pretty much the case for decades, wasn't it?

We know people left the state or left Buffalo for the suburbs. First the inner rings, back in the day, and more recently the second and third ring communities.

Now not even the outlying areas seem to be growing much, although Clarence and Lancaster are exceptions (7 % and 4.6% between 2000 and 2004). I don't know exactly what it means, but I hope it's not as bad as it sounds.

[jennifer7]

The areas that had the top or most Population Lost in the US were
every upstate New York State City Metro Area which includes
Metro Buffalo, Metro Rochester, Metro Syracuse & others
Pretty Much the rest of country has a booming Economy & atheirs alot
of areas have that a Booming Population to as well !
I Heard Lancaster, has lowest the number of new home building permits in
the last last 10 years. I also heard most new Builders are marketing & are planning on building more Patio homes then regular homes, due to the rapidly changing WNY Market. So I guess something is up, I don't even think their's
a new model house on display in the South Part of town anymore, that's like
the 1st time in 10 years too.

[ForestBird]

Sounds like good news to me. More space for everyone, cleaner air, less traffic. I hope the population of Erie County drops for the next 20 years, IF the population of government workers we support also drops!

Let other places deal with overcrowded schools, overpriced housing, traffic that never lets up, etc.
"Booming population" = "rapid overpopulation due to uncontrolled immigration and higher fertility rates in the immigrant groups". The USA will hit 300million this year, and every new person means ever faster destruction of our environment.

[atotaltotalfan2001]

Sounds like good news to me. More space for everyone, cleaner air, less traffic. I hope the population of Erie County drops for the next 20 years, IF the population of government workers we support also drops!

Let other places deal with overcrowded schools, overpriced housing, traffic that never lets up, etc.

That is the problem, though, isn't it? Government costs go up as the population shrinks, at least out here.

[steven]

How are things in going in "gilbert arizona" jennifer? .......A little birdie tells me thats not where u are.

[jennifer7]

Hello Steven:
Everything is Awesome. what are you having
thoughts about leaving ?

[steven]

nah, Im having thoughts about where your computer is.

[ForestBird]

I was just thinking this: if you weighed 190, and tried to lose weight, and only lost 4 pounds in 5 years, you'd be ticked-off. That's the same percentage as 20,000 vs 950,000. hehe

[biker]

nah, Im having thoughts about where your computer is.

You're a pretty fart smeller there, Steven.

(Pssst: I'm only about 20 miles from Gilbert tonight. I could go over and bang on her door.)

[biker]

Sounds like good news to me. More space for everyone, cleaner air, less traffic. I hope the population of Erie County drops for the next 20 years, IF the population of government workers we support also drops!

Let other places deal with overcrowded schools, overpriced housing, traffic that never lets up, etc.
"Booming population" = "rapid overpopulation due to uncontrolled immigration and higher fertility rates in the immigrant groups". The USA will hit 300million this year, and every new person means ever faster destruction of our environment.

I tend to feel like you, Forest.

What bothers me, though, is that there's no body of academic teaching or practical experience on how to manage decline.

[300miles]

You're a pretty fart smeller there, Steven.

(Pssst: I'm only about 20 miles from Gilbert tonight. I could go over and bang on her door.)

It sounds like it would be much easier for one of us to bang on her door if she's really posting from WNY

Those census numbers show the decline in the city of Buffalo has slowed dramatically. Even though the decline in Erie county has increased. Hmmm.

Regarding the census numbers... these mid-decade census data is all pure estimation. They don't actually take real head-counts until 2010. So if there were to be a shift in trends, it wouldn't necessarily show up.

I'm not saying the data is wrong. I'm just saying there's no proof that it's actually right either. It's all statistics.