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Thread: WNY continues to 'lead the show' in Covid-19 cases statewide

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    WNY continues to 'lead the show' in Covid-19 cases statewide

    https://buffalonews.com/news/local/w...me-top-story-1

    "Western New York leads the show with 6.6%," Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said Sunday.

    That number compares to the Finger Lakes, which had the second highest rate of 5.1%, as well as New York City, once a hotbed for the novel coronavirus, which now stands at 2.7%.

    Erie County's numbers were the most conspicuous of all.

    Fifty-five New Yorkers died Saturday, 14 of them in Erie County. No other county had more than five. That put the total number of deaths at 26,690 statewide.

    In all, 502 Erie County residents tested positive. There were 86 new cases in Niagara County, 39 in Cattaraugus County and 23 in Chautauqua County.
    There were 3,372 people hospitalized statewide, 657 of them in intensive care.

    The statewide average positivity rate is 3.5%, with Saturday registering 4.2%, the governor said.

    The region's positive test rate – the share of Covid-19 tests that come back positive, and an important predictor of the pandemic’s future course – is at its highest levels since mid-May. The seven-day average positive test rate is 6.7% through Nov. 28; that rate has more than doubled since Nov. 1.

    Other

    Seventy percent of the residents in Eden Rehabilitation & Nursing Center tested positive last week for Covid-19, making it one of the hardest-hit nursing homes in Erie County.

    A total of 28 residents in the 40-bed nursing home were infected with the coronavirus for the week ending last Saturday, according to the Erie County Health Department, which two weeks ago began releasing weekly tallies of infections at facilities where the Covid-19 positivity rate was 5% or more.

    The Health Department identified four other nursing homes that more than met the criteria with double-digit percentages:

    • Garden Gate Health Care Facility in Cheektowaga, 184 beds, had 34 residents test positive, which translated into a positivity rate of 18.5%.

    • GreenField Health & Rehabilitation Center in Lancaster, 160 beds, 28 residents tested positive, 17.5%

    • Autumn View Health Care Facility in Hamburg, 230 beds, 33 residents tested positive, 14.3%.

    • Harris Hill Nursing Facility in Lancaster, 192 beds, 27 residents tested positive, 14.1%.

    GreenField, which was one of three facilities identified in the Health Department’s first list for the week ending Nov. 14, experienced an increase in cases, going from 12 residents to 28.

    Autumn View, which had 51 cases in the county’s initial list, decreased to 28, and Elderwood at Grand Island, which had five cases, did not meet the criteria for the list representing the week ending Nov. 21.

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    West Seneca, Hamburg, Lancaster lead Erie County in new Covid-19 cases

    https://buffalonews.com/news/local/w...me-top-story-1

    These communities, which led in raw numbers of new cases, also had among the highest Covid-19 rates when adjusted for population, according to county Department of Health figures.

    The 14224 ZIP code, which covers West Seneca, had 236 new cases for the week ending Monday. Its number of new daily cases per 100,000 residents, based on a seven-day average, was 84.5, according to the county figures.

    Hamburg's 14075 ZIP code had 233 new cases over the same time frame. It had a population-adjusted average rate of 79.4, according to the county figures.

    The Lancaster ZIP code, 14086, had 203 new cases, while its population-adjusted rate was 91.1.

    "You want to find a way to keep it below 25," Poloncarz said of the population-adjusted rates.

    Rates of 25 to 50 indicate growth in Covid-19 cases, he said.

    "When you're above 50, it's bad," he added. "When you're above 75, it's really bad."

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    I disagree with the normalization of data to a higher threshold. It intentionally makes the data look worse when comparing communities that have 10-50k residents. The data should be normalized per 10k of population. This is something that I have never seen done before, which is why I believe that it's intentional.

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    Tony Fracasso - Admin
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    Quote Originally Posted by yaksplat View Post
    I disagree with the normalization of data to a higher threshold. It intentionally makes the data look worse when comparing communities that have 10-50k residents. The data should be normalized per 10k of population. This is something that I have never seen done before, which is why I believe that it's intentional.
    You don't believe that the number of people in the hospitals is increasing?

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    WNY, don’t forget that reason the number of hospitalizations is increasing is that people are no longer being scared aware from doctors like they were in the spring when Cuomo was warning people not to go the doctor if they were sick. Earlier care means more hospitalizations but fewer deaths although NYS still leads America in death rate. All together now, “We’re number 1, we’re number 1.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by yaksplat View Post
    I disagree with the normalization of data to a higher threshold. It intentionally makes the data look worse when comparing communities that have 10-50k residents. The data should be normalized per 10k of population. This is something that I have never seen done before, which is why I believe that it's intentional.
    As someone who was versed in statistics, your request is of no consequence. The format used has Lancaster’s population at 45,000 and based on that number and the 2o3 cases reported the rate per 100k is 91.1. If you were to base Lancaster at number per 50k, the rate would be 182.7. Semantics.

    Like you and Grump, I am tired of the virus being weaponized for political best interests. Tired of watching the goal posts being moved.

    Tired of hearing ‘follow the science’ when the science has been wrong in so many ways and covered up by now saying ‘it’s a novel virus and we are learning and evolving.

    Angry at hearing the end may be near with the vaccine discoveries only to hear about delays, distribution issues and now where 10-15% of recipients may suffer lingering debilitating side effects. How can we not feel that we are being played?

    That said, I am pleased with the information that is now being provided – bad news or not. For months early in the pandemic the county would provide no information to municipality leaders, even County Legislators.

    When I kept asking early on how safe I was in my town (Lancaster) no answer could be provided from anyone. Now I know.

    I hate being #1, detested what Cuomo had to say about Western New York, but at least data is now being presented where we can determine what course of action we choose to take to keep ourselves safe.

    Lancaster is a virus hot spot. Like many others, I spent Thanksgiving at home this year because family members were awaiting Covid test results because they had been in contact with individuals who had tested positive at work. God bless the essential workers – health industry and otherwise.

    Despite all the misery, Congress sits on its fat political asses and delays passing a much- needed stimulus package. Frustrated? Scared? Angry? You should be all of those as we are being screwed over by both sides of the political aisle for their best interests. And, how unfortunate that we are not smart enough for our Governor, not living in his real world, and for giving him a black eye in not controlling Covid. He sure has this state roaring on all cylinders, right? Just ask him!

    Despite all the data that is being provided, there is no way to determine how many individuals are contacting the virus from essential workers bringing it home – just as they are now finding out now how many nursing facility patients are being infected by staff.

    The Buffalo News is providing excellent daily coverage on the virus and its spread.

    Western New York still has highest Covid-19 rates in state

    https://buffalonews.com/news/local/w...me-top-story-1

    Western New York continues to have the highest positive coronavirus test rates in the state.

    The five-county region had a daily rate of 7.2% for Monday's testing, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said Tuesday morning.

    Western New York's all-time high hospitalization number continues its rise, surpassing 400 patients on Sunday. The region now has 411 hospitalizations as its total has increased every day since Nov. 9, a run of 20 straight days.

    Five WNY nursing homes among top 25 in New York for most Covid-19 cases

    https://buffalonews.com/news/local/f...a7f6839d4.html

    In Western New York, 1,963 nursing home residents were confirmed with Covid-19, 13% of all confirmed nursing home cases in the state.

    Beechwood Homes in Getzville had the most confirmed staff cases in Western New York, with 104, tied for 14th highest total in the state. Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation was 42nd in the state, with 81 confirmed staff cases. Clove Lakes Health Care and Rehab Center in Staten Island had the most staff in the state who tested positive, with 166.

    Across the state, 58 nursing home staff have died from Covid-19, including one employee of McAuley Residence in Kenmore, the only nursing home in Western New York to report a staff death.

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    Kudos to the BN for its extensive Covid report

    As of Monday, 432 Covid-19 patients were hospitalized in Western New York, more than quadruple their number one month ago, and well above the 263 peak hospitalizations on April 28.

    More than 700 Western New Yorkers now test positive for Covid-19 each day, on average the, the highest of any point in the pandemic.



    As Covid surges again in Erie County, take a look at who’s dying of the virus

    https://buffalonews.com/news/local/a...699c27962.html

    And most deaths are occurring among residents who live outside Buffalo.

    The main thing that keeps changing is the number of fatalities. More people are dying in every age group, and young people aren't immune to that risk.

    Better medical treatment is keeping more patients out of the morgue. But health professionals say there's no getting around a fundamental truth: The more people who are hospitalized, the more people who won't make it.

    Every adult age group has seen more deaths as hospitalizations have grown. Seniors remain at highest risk for death, but the percentage of young people dying of the virus has risen since summer.

    When it comes to sheer numbers, those age 80 and above account for 58% of all Covid-19 deaths in Erie County. That percentage has been largely unchanged. This age group accounted for at least 465 deaths as of last week.

    "We're having an increased rate of infections and hospitalizations, and, unfortunately, deaths, with individuals who live in suburbs and rural areas," County Executive Mark Poloncarz said Monday.

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    Cuomo: New York to receive 170K vaccine doses by Dec. 15

    Are Covid-19 vaccines safe? CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta has answers.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp

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    I will state COVID is a real virus, we should respect it's true destructive pattern. That being said, the virus has mutated since we first were exposed to its invasion early in the year. The virus impacts individuals differently, from seniors to children.

    When we were on lockdown early in March, hospitalization was for emergency events and COVID patients. All elective surgeries were put on hold. Once the infection rate was slowing down, hospitals furloughed medical workers and to date, these workers have not returned to the field. To put the overload of patients in hospitals into perspective, beds are only full based on the available staffing. The beds are not all occupied, and of the occupied beds, it is patients having elective surgeries as well as COVID patients.

    The fear factor is getting out of control. I am so done with it....

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    Short stuff, I’ve posted on other threads here about the deceptive reporting and outright lying by the Buffalo News in its frantic attempts to keep fear and panic at a fever pitch. This is all being done to support a Democratic Totalitarian despot. The death rate from Covid is just less than 2% and of those the majority are the elderly, typically over 75. I’m getting to the point where I can see that age coming but, as important and influential as I am, I don’t think the entire operation of Western civilization should be reordered to protect me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by grump View Post
    I can see that age coming but, as important and influential as I am, I don’t think the entire operation of Western civilization should be reordered to protect me.
    Dittos and well said.
    LIDA Member Rinow to Member Ruda: You were a sitting Trustee on the Board. Did you help support Mr. Sweeney getting a seat on the CDC Board?"

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    Quote Originally Posted by grump View Post
    Short stuff, I’ve posted on other threads here about the deceptive reporting and outright lying by the Buffalo News in its frantic attempts to keep fear and panic at a fever pitch. This is all being done to support a Democratic Totalitarian despot. The death rate from Covid is just less than 2% and of those the majority are the elderly, typically over 75. I’m getting to the point where I can see that age coming but, as important and influential as I am, I don’t think the entire operation of Western civilization should be reordered to protect me.

    Totally agree grump. People have been doing all of the right things to mitigate the spread. It's a virus that will take its course. Let's begin by suspending the rioters before we suspend church service leaders.... The double standards are proof in the pudding, if it is so serious why are our political leaders doing exactly what they are telling us NOT to do. They have lost all credibility.

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    I have given the Buffalo News credit for their reporting the Covid stats coming from the Erie County Health Institute. As the News reported today: Erie County has not provided daily reports of coronavirus deaths for months. However, county officials did not give specific information explaining the sudden jump in the death toll.

    Statistics (figures) don’t lie, liars, manipulators use statistics to serve their own purpose. Individuals receiving information will unfortunately read into that information what best serves their best interests and opinion. That is their prerogative.

    For one to dismiss the seriousness of the pandemic in Erie County at present is unwise considering the information presented in today’s Buffalo News:

    Erie County reported 771 cases Thursday, breaking the previous high of 718 one week earlier.

    More than half of Erie County's nearly 27,500 cases during the pandemic have come since Nov. 1. In November, at least 138 Erie County residents died from the coronavirus. About 100 of them died during the final two weeks of the month.

    Hospitalizations, which have spiked dramatically in recent weeks across the Western New York region, increased by 18 on Wednesday to 446.

    Western New York continues to have the highest seven-day average positive coronavirus test rate in the state at 7.71%.

    Erie County’s total death toll has also been revised to 869, Poloncarz announced Thursday, a figure that added 66 deaths that had previously not been included. Erie County has not provided daily reports of coronavirus deaths for months. However, county officials did not give specific information explaining the sudden jump in the death toll.


    However, for me the following link providing Covid-19 deaths by age is most telling. It has to affect one’s perspective on the seriousness of the spread of the virus and the precautions one is to take to stay safe:

    https://e-edition.buffalonews.com/?s...To=A06&artid=3

    Those under age 60 have less to fear regarding fatality – making up only 7.13% of the total deaths.

    Those in the 60-80 age group make up 34.52% of the fatalities.

    Those aged 80+ make up 58.34% of the total deaths recorded.

    So, would the the younger group be as concerned about the virus as the older, more vulnerable group? Of course not.

    Where I agree with Grump and Yaksplat is the way the data is being presented, specifically, what is being measured

    While the country is burning in general, Western, Western New York, and Lancaster in particular is being singled out as being irresponsible on the one hand, and then being told by county officials they can’t explain the reason for the virus spread or mortality increase.

    Why can’t I still not find the number of hospitalizations, ICU patients, Covid mortalities for Lancaster – and what percentage of that number are attributed to nursing homes facilities?

    Considering the deaths attributed to the 1918-20 flu vary from 18 million to 100 million and the number most used as an average is 50 million (and when the global population was only 1.74 billion), we most likely will never have accurate Covid numbers.

    At present, with a world population of 7.6 billion there are 1.51 deaths reported. In 1918 the U.S. population was 103.2 million and the death toll was estimated at 675,000.

    Some 75 million people died in WWII, including about 20 million military personnel and 40 million civilians, many of whom died because of deliberate genocide, massacres =, mass-bombings, disease, and starvation.

    Is the pandemic real and serious? Indeed! Enough to be politically weaponized and used to scare and control people and the reason to have shutdowns and serious restrictions that result in severe consequence to economy, jobs, psyche / emotional / substance abuse issues? Especially when a vaccine is near at hand.

    Are we being played? Depends on who you ask. Depends on the credibility of the data being presented and what is being measured. Can we trust the government and the media anymore?

    God bless the essential workers!

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    2WGRZ update into the county's COVID-19 status on Friday.

    https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/he...5-68e08e642436

    As of Wednesday, 78 percent of the hospital beds in Erie County were occupied.

    Mike Hughes with Kaleida Health said Friday that among Buffalo General, Millard Fillmore Suburban and Oishei Children's Hospital, there were 176 COVID-positive patients with about 18 percent of them in the ICU. Hughes said back in the spring, they peaked at about 110 COVID positive patients across the system but with nearly 40 percent in the ICU. "Clearly much larger patient base that we're dealing with, but fortunately not as much utilization for the ICU," Hughes said. "The spike is real. The surge is real. It's something that we have to take seriously."

    "We have elective surgery cancelation, mandatory 50 percent increase, and then we have emergency bed creation capacity where we can create several thousand hospital beds relatively quickly. We know that because we've done that," Cuomo said.

    However, it appears on average statewide, patients are coming in and getting out of the hospital quicker. The governor said the state is also seeing the death rate is going down. "March, April, of those hospitalized, 23 percent died. That number is down to eight percent," Cuomo explained.

    There were also 138 COVID-19 related deaths in November for Erie County, that number is something that may increase based on data that is still being collected, according to Poloncarz.

    Health and county officials also repeated that they are seeing an increase in cases coming from family spread.

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    Covid, take it seriously

    Sometimes it has to become personal before one believes the seriousness of an event, or to hear from the public rather than the media.

    In the past few days I know personally of two individuals hospitalized with Covid, one recovering at home and several testing positive and in quarantine. The great majority work in the health industry. Also hearing from nurses on the seriousness of the virus and on concerns of staffing shortages and worker fatigue.

    The one health care worker recovering at home sent me the following email this morning describing her grim Covid experience:

    Lee,

    I have been coping with Covid since Nov 15th. It was grueling. Asked LVAC to take me to the hospital and they advised against it since my lungs were clear.
    I'd never wish it on my worst enemy.

    My dog TIpper was with me through most of it but had a heart attack or stroke on Thursday. My grandson volunteered to come get her and take her for cremation.

    Waiting for my retest results. If I can get a negative Monday; back to work Tuesday. Have no idea of how things at work except what I read in the paper.
    My co-workers have been sheltering me against any info from work wanting me to build up my strength and not get stressed.

    It is real, Lee.

    Stay safe!

    God bless the first responders and essential workers, every one! Stay safe!

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