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Thread: Town’s response to Covid-19 crisis

  1. #31
    Member mark blazejewski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Chowaniec View Post
    Overwhelmed by the Covid-19 data? Here are 8 rules for understanding the numbers
    By Cory Franklin
    CHICAGO TRIBUNE

    During the coronavirus epidemic, it’s easy to become overwhelmed by data – confirmed cases, deaths per million, case fatality rates, etc. They are imprecise numbers that are often misquoted or quoted out of context. This, in turn, generates political pronouncements, scientific observations and media punditry that is frequently wrong, but rarely uncertain. So much information, what to believe? Here are eight tips on how to consider
    the numbers:

    1.

    All models are wrong.

    Some are useful. Models are mathematical descriptions of the real world used for calculations and predictions. They depend on assumptions and the numbers entered. Every model is an imperfect tool. This is evident from the wide variance in predictions of Covid-19 deaths, from several million to the current figure nearing 60,000, which we have already surpassed. Politicians use models to formulate policy, but models are always incomplete and wise policymakers must understand this.

    2.
    Long-range projections are typically less accurate than short-range projections.

    It’s easier to predict tomorrow’s weather than it is to predict next week’s. Conditions are always changing, and forecasters must account for uncertainty. In the coronavirus pandemic, different countries use different models and develop different strategies. Great Britain changed its policy midstream when scientists revised their models.

    3.
    Numbers are a representation of reality, not reality itself.

    The point of numbers is to help understand the reality of what’s happening. A philosopher once said, “the map is not the territory,” meaning there is a difference between a description of something and the thing itself. A good example of using numbers but ignoring reality was how some people describe Covid-19 as not much worse than the flu, based on the number of deaths from both. The comparison is inapt; flu deaths are a roughly defined estimate per season derived from multiple projections. In contrast, Covid-19 deaths have actually been observed over a period of weeks, and most deaths are clearly attributable to the virus. Only rarely has seasonal flu forced the creation of temporary field hospitals and morgues.

    4.
    Numbers require context.

    Adjust numbers to the size of the population. California illustrates how case numbers and deaths should be normalized to the size of the population. California is fifth in the number of total cases in the United States, but 30th in cases per capita. The state remains a mystery as to why it has a dramatically lower caseload and death total than expected, normalized for its size.

    5.
    There is no perfect number.

    No number is exact. The number of cases of Covid-19 is far from precise – it is an obvious undercount because not everyone has been tested. But it is a useful number for establishing trends. Likewise, some death figures are overcounts, others are undercounts and no one can say which predominates or by how much. But the measured number is a reliable, uniform outcome and helps us understand these trends, which is our ultimate goal. Rather than automatically discarding imperfect numbers as some advocate, try to understand their imperfections.

    6.
    Trends are more important than single values.

    The coronavirus has proved unpredictable – what was true yesterday may not be true today. To observe trends, information is more accurate when it is collected over time. A single value is a snapshot, many values over time are a movie.

    7.
    Beware of cherry-picking.

    We are often treated to articles with headlines such as “What the U.S. can learn from some other country” or “What one state got right.” No two regions are completely comparable. It’s tempting to select some place to illustrate a point that does not hold up under scrutiny. Canada is widely praised for its approach to the pandemic, but the Canadian profile of cases and deaths is similar to that of South Carolina, which has been excoriated for its approach. Similar numbers, different interpretation.

    8.
    Known knowns.

    Then Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld explained the uncertainty of complex situations when he said of the Iraq War, “As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

    Among the known unknowns in the uncertainty of the coronavirus epidemic are how the virus is transmitted and especially how it is transmitted by asymptomatic carriers; whether recovery means immunity to the virus; whether viral transmission will be deterred by warm weather; whether antivirals currently being tested will be effective; whether a timely vaccine can be developed; and how many people in the United States actually carry the virus. The unknown unknowns? There are many, and we don’t know what they are.

    There are pitfalls everywhere. When reading about this pandemic, don’t be discouraged. No one has all the answers.


    In the Town of Lancaster we know nothing of what's taking place in our town. Outside of confirmed Covid-19 cases, NADA!
    This, IMHO, is the most worthwhile collection of thoughts and guidance that anyone, including myself, has posted on this site in connection with the Covid-19 crisis.
    LIDA Member Rinow to Member Ruda: You were a sitting Trustee on the Board. Did you help support Mr. Sweeney getting a seat on the CDC Board?"

  2. #32
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    Keep in mind that in the 2017-2018 flu season 80,000 people died and we didn't bat an eye. On average 45k people die from the flu in the US each winter. Surprisingly this winter only had 15k flu related deaths. One might think that the remainder we attributed to something else...

  3. #33
    Member mark blazejewski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by yaksplat View Post
    One might think that the remainder we attributed to something else...

    I read where one child died at birth, and it was designated a Covid-19 death.

    Alternate attribution INDEED!"
    LIDA Member Rinow to Member Ruda: You were a sitting Trustee on the Board. Did you help support Mr. Sweeney getting a seat on the CDC Board?"

  4. #34
    Member mark blazejewski's Avatar
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    During last night's work session, were these words actually spoken?


    "Is there a way to trace callers?"

    "We are getting some different callers to say the least?




    If those words were so spoken, they are well beyond troubling, and I want to know who spoke them, and for what reason?

    (BTW, I see that I can not post larger pictures any more; just thumbnails again. Still sensitive to memes eh?)




    CLICK ON THIS PICTURE:



    image (19).jpg
    Last edited by mark blazejewski; May 5th, 2020 at 02:14 AM.
    LIDA Member Rinow to Member Ruda: You were a sitting Trustee on the Board. Did you help support Mr. Sweeney getting a seat on the CDC Board?"

  5. #35
    Member gorja's Avatar
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    The D.O.H. didn't update this until late last evening. It's shocking.



    https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics...g_home_acf.pdf

    This is why social distancing and wear protective masks are so important.
    Look at how it spread and it could happen anywhere.
    Last edited by gorja; May 5th, 2020 at 05:34 AM.

    Georgia L Schlager

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    gorja, I don’t find that shocking at all. It’s exactly what people said from the get go...the elderly and otherwise medically compromised are at high risk. That’s why they should be quarantined and protected. That’s also why Cuomo’s deadly orders to nursing homes that they had to take active corona sufferers is the height of negligence and stupidity if not actual criminality.

  7. #37
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    At least if you know an incoming resident is diagnosed as having Covid 19, you would immediately isolate them.
    I believe in a lot of these cases, the receiving nursing homes had incoming residents with that diagnosis unbeknownst to them or the sending hospital.

    Georgia L Schlager

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by gorja View Post
    At least if you know an incoming resident is diagnosed as having Covid 19, you would immediately isolate them.
    I believe in a lot of these cases, the receiving nursing homes had incoming residents with that diagnosis unbeknownst to them or the sending hospital.
    Well, they can try to isolate them. The problem with Cuomo’s death policy is that nursing homes simply aren’t acute care facilities. Some years back my wife was diagnosed with an infection and she found herself in the infectious disease ward at Buff General. It was set up by design to provide for that type of care. Nursing homes aren’t designed facility-wise to provide that care. Typically they lack the medical equipment to provide the care and their staff are not trained in acute care. Nursing homes are long term care facilities meant to provide particular types of care, not including guarding agains the spread of infections. And the population is by definition at the highest risk. Cuomo’s edict was a recipe for disaster and it ended up doing exactly what any thinking person knew would happen. Personally, I think the policy accomplished exactly what the proponents were hoping for. Not for nothing did a N.Y. newspaper nickname Zucker Dr Death.

  9. #39
    Member gorja's Avatar
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    Originally posted by mark Blazejewski:During last night's work session, were these words actually spoken?

    "Is there a way to trace callers?"

    "We are getting some different callers to say the least?


    If those words were so spoken, they are well beyond troubling, and I want to know who spoke them, and for what reason?


    You can't really believe that Michelle Obama called into the conference?
    https://soundcloud.com/user-32929237...-tbm#t=24:14.5

    Georgia L Schlager

  10. #40
    Member mark blazejewski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gorja View Post
    You can't really believe that Michelle Obama called into the conference?
    https://soundcloud.com/user-32929237...-tbm#t=24:14.5
    So what? I don't care if the caller referred to itself as Pontius Pilate or Gunga Din!

    I could understand if whoever, presumably the Supervisor, made the simple comment, made to the general listening audience: "Many people are listening-in with aliases, but if you wish to address the Board, you need to identify yourself with your proper name."

    I would have no problem with that whatsoever.

    However, that was not said to the general listening audience, but these words, seemingly addressed to the technical coordinator responsible for the rather arcane set-up were:


    "Is there a way to trace callers?"

    This was a public meeting, so what is the purpose to know the specific identity(s) of who was listening in, and from what telephone number they were calling from?

    Does one have to give to the Speaker of the House its name and telephone number when viewing House proceedings on C-Span?


    Trace calls indeed!

    I'm sorry Gorja, but those words, especially the word "trace" sounds to me like a possible attempt at intimidation in the People's House---period.

    Furthermore, there is a preponderance of evidence resident in the Supervisor's recent verbal conduct, which to many, myself included, that smacks of an inclination to apply authoritarian rule, and to us, such conduct is not acceptable.
    Last edited by mark blazejewski; May 5th, 2020 at 11:12 AM.
    LIDA Member Rinow to Member Ruda: You were a sitting Trustee on the Board. Did you help support Mr. Sweeney getting a seat on the CDC Board?"

  11. #41
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    At last night’s Town Board meeting Supervisor Ruffino reported world and Erie County stats on Covid-19 confirmed cases and deaths. He reported only on Lancaster’s 187 confirmed cases – no deaths, hospitalizations or patients in ICU. That is all the information Ruffino has to offer because the municipalities are unable to get more definitive information (even after FOILING for it) from the agencies complying the data.

    Disturbing to the residents who have been complying with the guidelines established to stop the spread and not having any information that would attest that their diligence is worthwhile. It appears like the spread is not abating from county indicators and we in Lancaster are left in the dark as to our own situation.

    Now comes even more disturbing news:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/oth...cid=spartandhp

  12. #42
    Member mark blazejewski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Chowaniec View Post

    Disturbing to the residents who have been complying with the guidelines established to stop the spread and not having any information that would attest that their diligence is worthwhile. It appears like the spread is not abating from county indicators and we in Lancaster are left in the dark as to our own situation.
    I am hesitant to ask further, or to perhaps even think about asking.


    Just sayin'.
    LIDA Member Rinow to Member Ruda: You were a sitting Trustee on the Board. Did you help support Mr. Sweeney getting a seat on the CDC Board?"

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    As new and added data information continue to be disseminated by state and county agencies, Lancaster residents are still saddled with only knowing number of Covid-19 confirmed cases.

    Trying to extrapolate state and county information and deduce relative Covid-19 Lancaster numbers is next to useless. We now learn that nursing home deaths comprise approximately 50% of total deaths. Knowing that the mortality ratio is approximately 8%, that Lancaster has 187 confirmed case, Lancaster should expect 15 deaths. Yet there are 21 nursing home deaths in Lancaster. How many more residential deaths are there? How severe is the virus in Lancaster?

    Of the total 3,749 Erie County confirmed Covid-19 cases, 308 deaths have been reported. 82% of the deaths have involved individuals aged 70 and above.

    State and county agencies are now reporting daily hospital patient stays and ICU numbers. Lancaster can only get confirmed case numbers and nursing home deaths, really?

    Lancaster residents who have been following stay-at-home guidelines for near 8 weeks t have no idea whether such practice, wearing a mandated mask or wiping down even their mail has had a positive impact.

    Other

    Regarding Supervisor Ruffino’s work session comment on tracing teleconference caller numbers, I can only hope his intent is to ensure that the allotted 50 call in number limit was reserved for Lancaster residents who want to partake in the conference call. Those participating in the meeting and wanting to comment on the resolutions or at the open public comment session should have the opportunity to participate. And it is at that time when individuals addressing the board are required to provide name and address.

    The current system is annoying in that callers are allowed in after the meeting is underway. One caller was accepted with less than a minute remaining. Ludicrous!

  14. #44
    Member mark blazejewski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Chowaniec View Post
    We now learn that nursing home deaths comprise approximately 50% of total deaths. Knowing that the mortality ratio is approximately 8%, that Lancaster has 187 confirmed case, Lancaster should expect 15 deaths. Yet there are 21 nursing home deaths in Lancaster. How many more residential deaths are there? How severe is the virus in Lancaster?

    Lee, I previously posted...

    Quote Originally Posted by mark blazejewski View Post
    I am hesitant to ask further, or to perhaps even think about asking.


    The information that you have presented under your post is one such reason why I am so hesitant.

    While the public is deluged with body counts, total cases, limited information concerning the number of recoveries, and a myriad of contradictory models and remedies, I am personally convinced of one thing: The powers-that-be are throwing out information, some quite contradictory, without having a clear understanding of the virus, its origins and make-up, and all of its effects on the body, just my opinion of course.

    I am specifically referring to what seems to be a continuous influx of ever-changing symptoms, and circumstances which do not lend themselves to a clear explanation as to why certain areas of the nation appear to be impacted by what appears to be a far-less virulent strain of the virus than other geographic areas.

    Even more troubling, now publicly present, are what appear to be credible reports of a post-virus malady: Strokes resultant from blood clots.

    Call me ill-informed in science, which I am, but in my mind, I simply can not harmonize such a virus, strictly resultant from natural sources, and spread unintentionally from China, with the observations that I have related above.

    Ergo, I dread what I expect to be an inevitable announcement. In that event, "Katie Bar The Door."
    Last edited by mark blazejewski; May 6th, 2020 at 02:34 AM.
    LIDA Member Rinow to Member Ruda: You were a sitting Trustee on the Board. Did you help support Mr. Sweeney getting a seat on the CDC Board?"

  15. #45
    Member mark blazejewski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lee Chowaniec View Post
    Regarding Supervisor Ruffino’s work session comment on tracing teleconference caller numbers, I can only hope his intent is to ensure that the allotted 50 call in number limit was reserved for Lancaster residents who want to partake in the conference call.
    Any decent-thinking Lancaster resident, I am sure, would share your hope Lee, but I believe that if your expressed "hope" was truly the intent of Supervisor's comment, such an intent would necessarily be based on the broad assumption that all calls will be coming from a Lancaster-based landline, or a cell phone with a Lancaster area code and appropriate prefix.

    For example, a friend of mine, a long-time, and current Lancaster resident, holds a cell number with a 585 area code. Would such a trace finding, indicating his out-of-Lancaster area code, prevent him from participating?

    If the Supervisor were to submit such an intent, in the future, he needs to speak more accurately, because after serious consideration, that "reason" for his unfortunate choice of words, strikes me as rather thin.
    Last edited by mark blazejewski; May 6th, 2020 at 10:19 AM.
    LIDA Member Rinow to Member Ruda: You were a sitting Trustee on the Board. Did you help support Mr. Sweeney getting a seat on the CDC Board?"

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