The race for NY governor is wide open.

[Jim Ostrowski]

This awesome. The race for NY governor is wide open.

Let's review.

Paterson is probably going to run--he's crazy if he doesn't. Yet, he is extremely unpopular and is too much a part of the system to fix it. (Hey, Guv, call me, I'll tell you what needs to be done. Fat chance!)

Cuomo. Don't bet the ranch on Prince Andrew. I'm a contrarian. It's complicated. First, remember a guy named Obama? He beat Hillary because he got 95% of the black vote. Remember Micky Kearns? Same. Will blacks vote for Cuomo, no.

Second, Paterson is a charming guy in many ways. Even people like me who disagree with his ideas, like him personally.

Third, the polls are meaningless. He is currently running against a man named your perfect fantasy opponent. Of course he's behind. Wait till a flesh and blood Cuomo enters the race. His numbers will drop immediately. People will begin to pour over his own lame political history. He is older now and his resemblance to his dreaded father is closer than ever. And forget his money. Duh, Paterson doesn't need money to command attention. He's the Governor!

Cuomo is a faux reformer. Eg, his consolidation bill conveniently excludes school districts. Andrew, that's where the problem is!

Trust me. Paterson is not dead yet. My track record of predictions is way over 50%.

Let's look at the Republicans.

Lazio is lame. He came to Buffalo and was asked for spending cuts and mumbled, I'll get back to you later. We've heard the same bull**** from Republican politicians for 45 years.

Collins is a gaffe machine and has shown me very little in terms of spending cuts. In my book, the book of objective reality, he's just another liberal. He favors central economic planning, corporate welfare and funding for left-wing arts organizations. (I oppose all funding for the arts for reasons I have explained elsewhere.) He is a classic country club Republican (CCR). I didn't see a single CCR at a tea party rally last year.

The dark horse in the race is Warren Redlich. Warren's campaign is building momentum. He would run as a Republican and Libertarian. He must gain the support of the NY tea party movement. If he does so, anything can happen. There has to be an agreement that the tea party folks will deem the LP their third party line in NY. If the tea party movement, highly decentralized in NY as it is everywhere, runs its own candidate against Warren, we're screwed!

(The LP line will be critical if Warren wins the GOP primary since the Democrat will have at least one minor party line, maybe two, depending on who has promised the most patronage jobs to which slimy minor party.)

I have not heard of any other potential tea party candidate at this point so we can hope for the best in that regard.

Warren reminds me of Ron Paul, who we both represented as election lawyers in 2007-8. Warren, like Ron initially, may not realize how close he is to being a real contender this year. I hate to tell him because I don't want to scare him out of the race! Ha, ha!



So there it is, totally wide open like never before in my (very short) lifespan!

Run Warren, run!

[run4it]

My track record of predictions is way over 50%.

Great...now I've got Fruity Cheerios-milk all over my computer screen.

The biggest one I can remember you supporting is Ron Paul. How many delegates did he even get, by the way?

You've been on the libertarian/tea party bandwagon as long as we've known you. Guess what? Those guys don't win. Almost never.

Ohhhh, wait....you did a wholesale cut and paste. Well, when your own diatribe gets old, you can always steal someone else's right?

At least have the taste to give credit.

[WNYresident]

Run4it?

Your signature is wrong. You should really be quoting therising. He coined the phrase "prick"..

[PickOranges]

If he runs as a moderate Republican, he might have a chance. If he runs with the tea baggers-- all is lost..

[Jim Ostrowski]

Supporting Ron Paul is not a prediction.

The tea party coalition, which I helped put together, supported five people last year. Three won--Hardwick, Fudoli, Dixon. Two lost narrowly, Wirth and Schratz.

Folks, if you have an obsession with attacking people, it clouds your judgment and makes you say dumb things.

As for moderate Republicans, that's what we have had for 45 years. All they do is grow the government faster than the liberals do because they are so obsessed with winning, as opposed to winning something worthwhile, that they add spending programs to buy votes. That is, they turn into what they hate, as the old expression goes.

[PickOranges]

We both know you can run under any party you want but the votes are in the middle.

You need to be a Republican or a Democrat but in the middle.

The only exception is if you were on top of your game and the party disavowed you. Voters are looking for that candidate to buck the system and stand up for them.

[Jim Ostrowski]

Right and the country and NY is screwed because of the middlers. We need something else.

Besides, the political spectrum is a total distortion. It's not even a spectrum.

[PickOranges]

I know you understand my point. Elections are not won on principles.

Ron Paul was a great candidate and so was Ralph Nader. That is not enough.. How does Bloomberg win as a rich Republican (changed parties often) in a Democratic city? Of course, money helps..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aB2p31qRJH6k

Emanuel, recruited anti- abortion, pro-gun candidates such as Brad Ellsworth, 50, a sheriff in Indiana, and Heath Shuler, 37, a former NFL quarterback, in North Carolina. The premise: identify candidates whose views best mirror those of their districts’ constituents rather than Democratic Party orthodoxy.


Hardwick, Fudoli, Dixon. They won on the Republican/Independence line in marginal districts. They are moderates that campaign for change. I know many democrats voted for them.

[Jim Ostrowski]

Redlich is a libertarian, "right" on economic issues, "left" on social issues. So is he a moderate, left or right? The spectrum's main function is to distort.

Here's a better one:

[PickOranges]

I love charts and signs..

Based on NYS Voters, where does he have to be in order to secure the votes necessary to win this election?

[FMD]

in all honesty, doesnt matter who wins the election, Jesus Christ himself could win and nothing would change. taxes and spending would still increase. The only time change will affect the State of NY is when the state files for bankruptcy.

[Bioguy231]

I'm actually convinced that our next Governor will be a one term Governor and probably have no political career afterward. He/she will be a miserable failure. There's no way of avoiding it.

Face it, NYS is a train wreck. The state is in serious financial trouble and no one is going to be able to dig the state out of this in 4 years. Whoever gets elected might do some great things in terms of reform but it's going to take decades to rectify things. Do you think the public sector unions are going to cave in and offer salary cuts and concessions? Maybe they will after their employees have gone 10 years without a pay increase but I wouldn't hold my breath.

We're in very very deep do do.

Expect major tax increases and tons of new fees. There's no way of avoiding it.

[Save Us]

I'm actually convinced that our next Governor will be a one term Governor and probably have no political career afterward. He/she will be a miserable failure. There's no way of avoiding it.

Face it, NYS is a train wreck. The state is in serious financial trouble and no one is going to be able to dig the state out of this in 4 years. Whoever gets elected might do some great things in terms of reform but it's going to take decades to rectify things. Do you think the public sector unions are going to cave in and offer salary cuts and concessions? Maybe they will after their employees have gone 10 years without a pay increase but I wouldn't hold my breath.

We're in very very deep do do.

Expect major tax increases and tons of new fees. There's no way of avoiding it.

Question is can you mobilize enough people to vote a taxpayer friendly candidate in office..

probably not.

[cheekman]

Question is can you mobilize enough people to vote a taxpayer friendly candidate in office..

probably not.

Su, i can answer that it's simple......NO

[PickOranges]

The Mass. race is close..

The guy is running as an independent republican. He might just pull it off.


6. This is a test of the power of political independents. Fewer than one in eight Massachusetts voters admits to being a Republican. So GOP nominee Brown couldn't come close to victory without carrying independent voters by a wide margin and chipping away at the Democratic base. That's terrible news for Democrats looking ahead. If independents continue to flee the Democratic Party -- as they did in New Jersey and Virginia last year -- the midterm elections could be an absolute disaster for the ruling party.


7. It's a good indicator of voters' desire for divided government. Even in Massachusetts, many voters want to send a message to Democrats in DC: One-party government is not a good idea. A Brown win -- or even a photo finish -- would tell us that even some Democrats want a limit on the power of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/...entry_id=55468