I keep hearing about this housing boom downtown....
All this new construction
A growing tax base for the first time in 40 years
More neighborhoods filling up
and yet:
"Population drain is speeding up"
but don;t worry: Byron Brown and some assorted other politicians say that those numbers won't hold up once the real census comes along. I WANT to believe them.
but what is REALLY going on in WNY?
The truth from a troll is still the truth.
As you said, the housing 'boom' is downtown.
The falling population is measured citywide.
I don't believe they have population growth estimates measured just for downtown or specific sections of the city. It's not far-fetched to assume that certain areas of the city are growing, while other areas of the city are still declining... and the declines still outnumber the growth.
I'd be very interested in hearing peoples thoughts about this concurrent neighborhood growth and decline occuring within a larger, overall citywide decline.....
Will the overall decline eventually undermine the growth occuring in some neighborhoods?
Or are we just on the road to downsizing, whether we like it or not?
How can the city, overall, improve while the population, overall, declines?
Population numbers alone don't always indicate whether a city is "improving". A city with out of control suburban sprawl like Phoenix, Las Vegas, or Indianapolis may have big population gains but its coming at the expense of the built environment. The revitalization neglected or underutilized neighborhoods in a city (downtown, Uptown Main St., Connecticut St.) experiencing population losses can be considered improvement. While Buffalo is working on getting its economy back in order, it is encouraging to see investment and revitalization in the neighborhoods. When Buffalo starts to see population growth again the changes happening now will have made the city better.Originally Posted by mojo
Bingo!
Now, the important thing is to change the attitude "whether we like it or not".
Buffalo is going to be smaller. Period. So we need to reshape our thinking and look to see how we can turn this to our advantage.
We're not going to get any help from professional planners. As Crache and WCP have told us, there are no university classes in urban planning that speak to decline. So we're on our own.
What's going on downtown is instructive.
Despite a declining population base and a moribund economy (can't even give away AM&As), private investors see an opportunity for profit. That's great news.
It's not very big. But the very fact that these projects are small and rather scattered means that the investors and the City will have the opportunity to see how it works out and evolve along with this private redevelopment.
Truth springs from argument among friends.
I doubt we will see any population growth in our lifetime.
For those that do, care to make a guess as to the date that will occur?
Truth springs from argument among friends.
Quite true and good point. Possibly to our advantage to stop trying to make Buffalo what it isn't and capitalize on what it is, and can be.
Ummm, does this thread have a slightly positive tone?
I love the idea of urban planning classes investigating what cities do with population decline.
I also love the idea of many smaller business ventures occuring in the same general direction, rather than waiting for a mega-leader-politico-savior-golden-ticket-ginormous-business holding the only key to Buffalo's future. Sure some smaller business ventures will fail, some will succeed, and some will succeed that some Blo-critics won't want to succeed (umm, hotel on Elmwood anyone)....but it certainly lends itself to greater stability and lesser chance of mega-failure/negative repercussions.
Oh, and another thing...Buffalo's population will increase in 2025 when global warming drives everyone back north. We better get a water conservation/consumption/protection plan in place before then.
Great post, mojo.
Welcome aboard.
Don't agree with the last point, though. It's a Northeaster/urban myth/wishful thinking/we'll show them type of thought that animates some.
Truth springs from argument among friends.
Bust. A slow-motion Bust. Forcing housing into downtown is exactly what a good U.B. study said NOT to do. Limited resources, spent unwisely.
AM&As is now supposed to have new owners in August...Then again, developers have had it under option numerous times in the past five years only to walk away.
The best housing policy and growth policy is a job creation policy. Jobs solve many woes. That should be our elected leader's focus.
Interesting discussion on BRising- Albany's attitude is since the State's policies of strangling business works in Manhattan, the rest of the State doesn't matter. That is where the State's center of gravity is. The rest of the State be damned.
There is no such study.
Its been 30 years of bust. The question is, has the area stabilized? Has population loss over the last five years right-size the labor market here? And what does the future hold?
No forcing involved. These are private investors who believe they will make an outsize profit by providing housing not offered before.
We'll see if it's unwise or not. But it's not on the taxpayer's nickel.
Truth springs from argument among friends.
There are several knocks against the area coming back. I don't know if this is the primary, but it is definetely detrimental. And I don't think there is any prospect for this to change.
So the prospects for continued jobs and population decline is almost guaranteed.
Truth springs from argument among friends.
I just read it, so I guess you are wrong. They also surveyed suburban people, to determine the likelihood of them moving into the city; very few even considered it.
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