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Thread: Population Drop Accelerating

  1. #1
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    Population Drop Accelerating

    Buffalo's population decline gathers speed
    G. Scott Thomas
    Business First

    The exodus from Buffalo is accelerating. The city's population declined by 2,600 between mid-2003 and mid-2004, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. That's its sharpest year-to-year drop since the beginning of the current decade.

    Previous federal reports had suggested that Buffalo's population decline was slowly coming under control. The city's annual losses since 2000 had become progressively smaller -- from 2,340 to 2,270 to 2,000 -- before the latest upswing began.

    The new report pegs Buffalo's population at 282,864 as of July 1, 2004, its lowest level since the late 1800s. The city is now at less than half its peak of 580,132, set back in April 1950.

    Buffalo, as a result, continues to sink in the nation's population standings. It now ranks as the 63rd-largest city in America, directly behind Aurora, Colo., and Riverside and Bakersfield, Calif. (- Aurora is acceptable, but Riverside and Bakersfield?!?!? SAD)

    That contrasts sharply with its position a century ago. Buffalo had 352,387 residents when the 1900 census was conducted -- nearly 70,000 more than it does now -- making it the nation's eighth most-populous city.

    The latest figures come from a Census Bureau program that estimates the populations of nearly 40,000 U.S. communities, filling the gap between the official censuses that are conducted every 10 years. Estimates are based on birth and death statistics collected by each state, along with change-of-address lists compiled by the Internal Revenue Service.

    The bureau's report, which was released on June 30, provides nothing but numbers -- millions of figures covering every city, town and village across America. It does not discuss emerging trends or offer explanations for changes in population patterns. Demographers will spend the coming months and years seeking those very answers.

    The federal report shows that Buffalo has lost more residents than any other community in Western New York since the dawn of the 21st century. But the city has plenty of company on the minus side:

    Cities
    All 11 cities in the region had fewer residents in mid-2004 than they did in 2000.

    Jamestown, which saw 4.0 percent of its base slip away in four years, suffered the worst drop of any Western New York city in percentage terms. It lost 1,289 people, falling to a 2004 population of 30,695.

    Five other cities -- the City of Tonawanda, Dunkirk, Lackawanna, the City of Lockport and Niagara Falls -- posted sharper percentages of decline than Buffalo's four-year loss of 3.3 percent.

    Absolute declines surpassed 1,000 people in four instances. Buffalo's population fell by 9,784 between 2000 and 2004, while Niagara Falls lost 1,885 people, Jamestown 1,289 and North Tonawanda 1,074.

    Villages
    Sixty-nine of Western New York's 77 villages finished lower at the end of the four-year period.

    Kenmore was the biggest loser both in absolute numbers (677 people) and percentage (4.1 percent). Its 2004 population was 15,749.

    Three other villages lost at least 200 people since 2000: Depew (626), the Village of Hamburg (375) and East Aurora (231).

    The eight exceptions -- the only villages to gain population during the current decade -- were Akron, Alexander, Alfred, Ellicottville, Farnham, Lancaster, Springville and Westfield, listed alphabetically.

    Towns
    A majority of the region's 164 towns lost population, but several registered robust increases. The overall count was 97 declines, 65 gains and two that were unchanged from 2000.

    On the upside were adjacent towns in northeastern Erie County -- Clarence and the Town of Lancaster -- that added more than 3,600 residents between them:

    Clarence's population grew by 1,843 to a 2004 total of 27,966. Its rate of increase was 7.1 percent in four years.
    The corresponding gains in the Town of Lancaster were 1,811 people and 4.6 percent. Its population as of mid-2004 was 40,830.
    The only other town to add more than 1,000 residents since 2000 was Wheatfield, the center of growth in Niagara County. Its population climbed by 1,505 to a new total of 15,591.

    The two biggest decliners, on the other hand, were first-ring suburban towns that once boasted populations above 100,000.

    The Town of Tonawanda is now down to 75,099 after losing nearly 3,100 people between 2000 and 2004. And Cheektowaga's population has slipped to 91,554, reflecting its four-year decline of 2,465.

    Amherst remains the most-populous town in Western New York -- and the region's second-biggest community next to Buffalo. Its population has remained virtually stagnant since the beginning of the current decade, falling just 0.1 percent to 116,369 in mid-2004.

  2. #2
    Member Trolls_r_us's Avatar
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    even still, the city's losses look to come in WAY under the 40,000 that left in the previous decade (1990-2000)

    even 3K/yr=30,000 by the end of the year

    Not that that is GOOD, but it is BETTER than the previous census

    This is BAD NEWS, though. The County fiscal crisis comes at a TERRIBLE time.

    And just think, NONE of this would have happened had Al Debenedetti voted "Yes" the second time around back in December.

    No deficit.
    No control board.
    No chaos.
    No constant battering of our community in the news.

    And also, no reforms, although I haven't seen much even now.
    The truth from a troll is still the truth.

  3. #3
    Member steven's Avatar
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    I think a lot of those numbers are wrong.

    When questioned how they obtain their data the census sited a lot of things that just dont work in this day and age, for instance one of there ways is to use telephone directorys. A growing segment of the population dont use traditional phones (land line) anymore opting for cell phones for home and away use. its almost impossible to get a handle on these people. If 5 renters on your block got rid of there local tel. service and just used cell phones its very likely the census whould cross all or some of them off the list for living in your nieghborhood. At least thats what I got from an article I saw on this subject.

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    Member Trolls_r_us's Avatar
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    Steven,

    Good point.

    I just moved into the WNY area from Northern NY about a year ago, and I haven't had a landline since I've been here (cellphone is cheaper and much more convenient, for me)

    I guess that means we (myself and my fiance, weren't counted, and we live in the city, so bump that estimate up to 282,866!
    The truth from a troll is still the truth.

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    Who was the guy who was going to take a bet on population loss?
    Truth springs from argument among friends.

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    Member Trolls_r_us's Avatar
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    I don't know, but we should wait until the 2010 census comes out, since it used a more exact methodology, although even THAT is flawed to some degree, as we have discussed
    The truth from a troll is still the truth.

  7. #7
    Member crlachepinochet's Avatar
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    I'm doing my part... marrying an Amherst girl and bringing her into the City. Bite me, Amherst! Even with the City still losing people, I'd say things are more positive than they have been. Downtown is developing as a neighborhood, there should be more residential investment around the Medical Campus, and Elmwood is very desirable. If only they would move Renaissance Village a couple miles west...

    Is there an easy way for someone to find stats on the most vacant areas of Buffalo? The City should complie a list of the most vacant areas and aim for a large-scale redev in the New Urbanism mold. I'm not completely sold on New Urbanism, but it sells. One of my biggest problems with Cedargrove/Renaissance is that I'm not convinced the neighborhood is "broken", but I don't think you'd have a problem claiming blight in many areas of Buffalo.
    Remain calm!! But run for your lives if necessary!

  8. #8
    Member jbinbny's Avatar
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    I think the numbers are incorrect

    While there is no doubt the city/county has suffered a huge population loss in the last three decades and shows no sign of letting up, I think the numbers are a little off.

    While I cant argue that the area is half the size it was, I believe the census numbers are wrong. If I remember correctly, Masiello and Giambra could have hired a private firm to give us a far more accurate count, but instead chose not to spend the money. (IMO this would have been money well spent)

    But we chose to go by a census count that is almost always wrong. Not grossly wrong, but still inaccurate. I still believe that if a private firm were hired, Buffalo's population would still be over 300,000 and the county's over 1 million.

    Many cities throughout the country dispute census findings and hire private firms to give them a more accurate count. In almost alll cases we find that the population has been undercounted by the Census Bureau by thousands of people.

    I believe this to be the case here as well.
    Thank you New York, may I please have another!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    IMO

    The discussion of how we should spend public money to find people who don't want to be counted because they are here illegally so we can get more state and federal monies to provide them services is a downward spiral into absurdity.

    This area is going broke.

    Read the front page story on charitable not-for-profits. They are merging or shutting down because charitable giving and government support are disappearing.

    Three generations of girls in my family went to Camp Aloha. There will not be a fourth.

    Then I hear a hospital worker telling how she has to have an interpreter to get intake information from someone who has no social security number.

    There is a point at which this has to stop.

    That point is now.
    Truth springs from argument among friends.

  10. #10
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    In this thread and many others:

    Everyone bemoans the hight tax rates.

    I haven't heard anyone say "we don't pay enough"

    People are leaving this area. Period.

    The only debate is how fast.

    All the above posts about under-counting do not claim middle-class people who work each day.

    Put it all together:

    The middle class is leaving this area and has for fifty years.

    At what point do you recognize this has gone too far?

    Does anyone look forward to the day when 100% of our ErieCounty citizens are on welfare?

    If so, at what percentage should we make our benefits less attractive?
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  11. #11
    Member Trolls_r_us's Avatar
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    Biker,

    I agree with your point to some degree,but everyone is playing by your rules

    We ALREADY provide services to these "undercounted" people. They are ALREADY a drain on our city (sorry, but its true).

    HOWEVER, our city is NOT being compensated by (especially) the Feds for this "problem" to the degree it should be. Therefore, a greater percentage of locally generated $$ goes into providing these people goodies when the feds nd state ought to be kicking more $$ in.

    Think of it this way: does BUFFALO patrol the borders? Did BUFFALO come up with this INSANE medicaid program?

    No and No.

    But we ARE NY's second largest city, and people who come in illegally or "don't want to be counted" aren't exactly going to go to Clarence or Hamburg, are they?

    Nope. they come to our city, and we ALREADY are forced to "deal" with them in the form of handouts and free services. THIS is out of our control. Fed and State laws dictate this to us.

    SO, that being the case, we OUGHT to have an accurate count of how big this group of folks is, so that we get INCREASED funding to deal with it. It isn't OUR FAULT they are here, and it isn;t OUR FAULT that we have no choice but to provide services to them.

    I for one, am NOt willing to ONCE AGAIN "let WNY fall on its proverbial sword to prove a point"

    Giambra tried that.

    NOBODY CARES!

    You can't say "I know OTHER cities are getting a CORRECT COUNT and therefore increased and accurate funding levels, but WE are aBOVE such tomfoolery! WE ARE RIGHTEOUS! Watch us crumble under the burden YOU placed on us!"

    I don't get this attitude among WNY'ers in general.

    We all need to WAKE UP and realize that NOBODY CARES whether we make it or not, at least not enough to totally reform a corrupt system just to SAVE us.

    You'd think people would have learned that by now.

    Giambra thought that crippling Erie County to prove a point would bring Pataki, Bruno, and Silver out onto a prarie, the music would swell, there would be tears, and suddenly ALBANY of all entities would say:

    "MY GOD... WHAT HAVE WE DONE! PLEASE.... PLEASE... PLEASE FORGIVE US!"

    LMFAO

    Give me a break. It would comical if it wasn't so PATHETIC.

    LEt some OTHER city play the "righteous" game, and self destruct and prove the point FOR US.

    I for one, am SICK and TIRED of Buffalo masochistic tendencies.

    Perhaps, instead of WHINING and playing the VICTIM in some twisted, bizarre attempt to make others (who could CARE LESS) "realize the erros of their ways" Buffalo should fight for their piece of the pie.

    So WHAT if it's wrong? We didn't make the rules, and we can't change them, either, at least not alone. Thus we must begin to play by the same rules that everyone ELSE is, even if they are distasteful.

    Reform will come slow, if it all. Maybe when NY City, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse are aLL operating under control boards Albany will wake up. The ONLY thing saving Albany itself is that the city is artificially propped up by one of the LARGEST gov't entities IN THE WORLD!

    MEDICIAD is now OVER 60% of NY state's budget!

    Anyway, to get more to the point, If Federal and State dollars are going to be paid out (which they ARE, no stopping that), then I want Buffalo to recieve EVERY SINGLE PENNY to which she is entitled.

    No more pretening we are "above" playing by the rules that the rest of the state and country is playing under.

    We all wish it was different.

    But until that music swells, and Albany drops to its knees in some sort of dramatic self-awakening, and begs the rest of us for forgiveness, and makes everything all better, then we need to collect our fair share of the waste.

    We are ENTITLED to our fair share, since whether these people are counted or not we are STILL forced to pay their way.

    You think they say "ahh you know what, the census guys didn't count me so you can go ahead and NOT feed, clothe, house, and care for me
    The truth from a troll is still the truth.

  12. #12
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    I agree with some of what you say.

    My answer: call INS
    Truth springs from argument among friends.

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    Re: Population Drop Accelerating

    Originally posted by WestCoastPerspective
    Buffalo's population decline gathers speed
    G. Scott Thomas
    Business First

    The exodus from Buffalo is accelerating. The city's population declined by 2,600 between mid-2003 and mid-2004, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. That's its sharpest year-to-year drop since the beginning of the current decade.

    Previous federal reports had suggested that Buffalo's population decline was slowly coming under control. The city's annual losses since 2000 had become progressively smaller -- from 2,340 to 2,270 to 2,000 -- before the latest upswing began.

    The new report pegs Buffalo's population at 282,864 as of July 1, 2004, its lowest level since the late 1800s. The city is now at less than half its peak of 580,132, set back in April 1950.

    Buffalo, as a result, continues to sink in the nation's population standings. It now ranks as the 63rd-largest city in America, directly behind Aurora, Colo., and Riverside and Bakersfield, Calif. (- Aurora is acceptable, but Riverside and Bakersfield?!?!? SAD)

    That contrasts sharply with its position a century ago. Buffalo had 352,387 residents when the 1900 census was conducted -- nearly 70,000 more than it does now -- making it the nation's eighth most-populous city.

    The latest figures come from a Census Bureau program that estimates the populations of nearly 40,000 U.S. communities, filling the gap between the official censuses that are conducted every 10 years. Estimates are based on birth and death statistics collected by each state, along with change-of-address lists compiled by the Internal Revenue Service.

    The bureau's report, which was released on June 30, provides nothing but numbers -- millions of figures covering every city, town and village across America. It does not discuss emerging trends or offer explanations for changes in population patterns. Demographers will spend the coming months and years seeking those very answers.

    The federal report shows that Buffalo has lost more residents than any other community in Western New York since the dawn of the 21st century. But the city has plenty of company on the minus side:

    Cities
    All 11 cities in the region had fewer residents in mid-2004 than they did in 2000.

    Jamestown, which saw 4.0 percent of its base slip away in four years, suffered the worst drop of any Western New York city in percentage terms. It lost 1,289 people, falling to a 2004 population of 30,695.

    Five other cities -- the City of Tonawanda, Dunkirk, Lackawanna, the City of Lockport and Niagara Falls -- posted sharper percentages of decline than Buffalo's four-year loss of 3.3 percent.

    Absolute declines surpassed 1,000 people in four instances. Buffalo's population fell by 9,784 between 2000 and 2004, while Niagara Falls lost 1,885 people, Jamestown 1,289 and North Tonawanda 1,074.

    Villages
    Sixty-nine of Western New York's 77 villages finished lower at the end of the four-year period.

    Kenmore was the biggest loser both in absolute numbers (677 people) and percentage (4.1 percent). Its 2004 population was 15,749.

    Three other villages lost at least 200 people since 2000: Depew (626), the Village of Hamburg (375) and East Aurora (231).

    The eight exceptions -- the only villages to gain population during the current decade -- were Akron, Alexander, Alfred, Ellicottville, Farnham, Lancaster, Springville and Westfield, listed alphabetically.

    Towns
    A majority of the region's 164 towns lost population, but several registered robust increases. The overall count was 97 declines, 65 gains and two that were unchanged from 2000.

    On the upside were adjacent towns in northeastern Erie County -- Clarence and the Town of Lancaster -- that added more than 3,600 residents between them:

    Clarence's population grew by 1,843 to a 2004 total of 27,966. Its rate of increase was 7.1 percent in four years.
    The corresponding gains in the Town of Lancaster were 1,811 people and 4.6 percent. Its population as of mid-2004 was 40,830.
    The only other town to add more than 1,000 residents since 2000 was Wheatfield, the center of growth in Niagara County. Its population climbed by 1,505 to a new total of 15,591.

    The two biggest decliners, on the other hand, were first-ring suburban towns that once boasted populations above 100,000.

    The Town of Tonawanda is now down to 75,099 after losing nearly 3,100 people between 2000 and 2004. And Cheektowaga's population has slipped to 91,554, reflecting its four-year decline of 2,465.

    Amherst remains the most-populous town in Western New York -- and the region's second-biggest community next to Buffalo. Its population has remained virtually stagnant since the beginning of the current decade, falling just 0.1 percent to 116,369 in mid-2004.

    Wonder how long it will be before population starts dropping Clarence, Lancaster and Wheatfield too? Seems inevitable.

    My theory about Amherst is that it stays stable mostly because of UB, and because it is drawing a bit more from Buffalo.

  14. #14
    Member Trolls_r_us's Avatar
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    actually, the title of the article should have been:

    "Population drop improves by 50% over last decade: Exodus slowing, census figures say"

    This is because during the decade of 1990-2000, Buffalo lost 40,000 people, whereas Erie County lose 30,000.

    THIS current decade, though, that pattern has ACTUALLY SLOWED.

    We are now on pace to lose roughly 19,000 people for the entire 2000-2010 decade, a HUGe improvement over 40,000 the previous one.

    Erie County ALSO looks to lose around 50% less, with a projected loss of around 15,000 instead of 30,000

    I would say these trends have been stablizing for the last 10-15 years, although 2005 was worse than 2004 by a lsight margin, it STILL beat the heck out of ANY year in the 1990's, as did ALL of the 2000's for that matter, which means our situation is IMPROVING, NOT declining....

    Still, we are talking about LOSSES however you slice it. That is still bad.

    But we are talking about losses which are FAR LESS than they were 10 years ago.
    The truth from a troll is still the truth.

  15. #15
    Tony Fracasso - Admin
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    Does anyone look forward to the day when 100% of our ErieCounty citizens are on welfare?
    Of course they do. Look at all the employement we'll have when Social services has to hire even more people to serve the public.

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