Buffalo's population decline gathers speed
G. Scott Thomas
Business First

The exodus from Buffalo is accelerating. The city's population declined by 2,600 between mid-2003 and mid-2004, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. That's its sharpest year-to-year drop since the beginning of the current decade.

Previous federal reports had suggested that Buffalo's population decline was slowly coming under control. The city's annual losses since 2000 had become progressively smaller -- from 2,340 to 2,270 to 2,000 -- before the latest upswing began.

The new report pegs Buffalo's population at 282,864 as of July 1, 2004, its lowest level since the late 1800s. The city is now at less than half its peak of 580,132, set back in April 1950.

Buffalo, as a result, continues to sink in the nation's population standings. It now ranks as the 63rd-largest city in America, directly behind Aurora, Colo., and Riverside and Bakersfield, Calif. (- Aurora is acceptable, but Riverside and Bakersfield?!?!? SAD)

That contrasts sharply with its position a century ago. Buffalo had 352,387 residents when the 1900 census was conducted -- nearly 70,000 more than it does now -- making it the nation's eighth most-populous city.

The latest figures come from a Census Bureau program that estimates the populations of nearly 40,000 U.S. communities, filling the gap between the official censuses that are conducted every 10 years. Estimates are based on birth and death statistics collected by each state, along with change-of-address lists compiled by the Internal Revenue Service.

The bureau's report, which was released on June 30, provides nothing but numbers -- millions of figures covering every city, town and village across America. It does not discuss emerging trends or offer explanations for changes in population patterns. Demographers will spend the coming months and years seeking those very answers.

The federal report shows that Buffalo has lost more residents than any other community in Western New York since the dawn of the 21st century. But the city has plenty of company on the minus side:

Cities
All 11 cities in the region had fewer residents in mid-2004 than they did in 2000.

Jamestown, which saw 4.0 percent of its base slip away in four years, suffered the worst drop of any Western New York city in percentage terms. It lost 1,289 people, falling to a 2004 population of 30,695.

Five other cities -- the City of Tonawanda, Dunkirk, Lackawanna, the City of Lockport and Niagara Falls -- posted sharper percentages of decline than Buffalo's four-year loss of 3.3 percent.

Absolute declines surpassed 1,000 people in four instances. Buffalo's population fell by 9,784 between 2000 and 2004, while Niagara Falls lost 1,885 people, Jamestown 1,289 and North Tonawanda 1,074.

Villages
Sixty-nine of Western New York's 77 villages finished lower at the end of the four-year period.

Kenmore was the biggest loser both in absolute numbers (677 people) and percentage (4.1 percent). Its 2004 population was 15,749.

Three other villages lost at least 200 people since 2000: Depew (626), the Village of Hamburg (375) and East Aurora (231).

The eight exceptions -- the only villages to gain population during the current decade -- were Akron, Alexander, Alfred, Ellicottville, Farnham, Lancaster, Springville and Westfield, listed alphabetically.

Towns
A majority of the region's 164 towns lost population, but several registered robust increases. The overall count was 97 declines, 65 gains and two that were unchanged from 2000.

On the upside were adjacent towns in northeastern Erie County -- Clarence and the Town of Lancaster -- that added more than 3,600 residents between them:

Clarence's population grew by 1,843 to a 2004 total of 27,966. Its rate of increase was 7.1 percent in four years.
The corresponding gains in the Town of Lancaster were 1,811 people and 4.6 percent. Its population as of mid-2004 was 40,830.
The only other town to add more than 1,000 residents since 2000 was Wheatfield, the center of growth in Niagara County. Its population climbed by 1,505 to a new total of 15,591.

The two biggest decliners, on the other hand, were first-ring suburban towns that once boasted populations above 100,000.

The Town of Tonawanda is now down to 75,099 after losing nearly 3,100 people between 2000 and 2004. And Cheektowaga's population has slipped to 91,554, reflecting its four-year decline of 2,465.

Amherst remains the most-populous town in Western New York -- and the region's second-biggest community next to Buffalo. Its population has remained virtually stagnant since the beginning of the current decade, falling just 0.1 percent to 116,369 in mid-2004.