Buffalo/Niagara #5 Growing Real Estate Market (Money Mag)

[nickelcityhomes]

A 24.5% appreciation projection over 5 years might be a little aggressive, but at least the outlook is healthy.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/...oneymag/5.html

[Downstate Buffaloian]

I think that once Buffalo sheds the last of its GM/Ford blue collar jobs it will have a pretty stable economy. Certainly not booming by any stretch of the imagination but no more big closings or layoffs either because the remaining large employers will be in fields like healthcare and education which are fairly stable.

High oil prices and a weak dollar seem to helping Buffalo more than it is hurting it. It seems like the area's relatively compact geography, short commutes, low housing prices, cheap labor force and proximity to Canada (and their strong dollar) are starting to attract positive attention.

[raoul duke]

Care to explain how "shed[ding]" good paying jobs will make the local economy stable? Are they going to get jobs in hospitals or at schools?

[LHardy]

Care to explain how "shed[ding]" good paying jobs will make the local economy stable? Are they going to get jobs in hospitals or at schools?

Too add that the healthcare and education fields in NYS are very dependent on tax dollars.

[Downstate Buffaloian]

Care to explain how "shed[ding]" good paying jobs will make the local economy stable? Are they going to get jobs in hospitals or at schools?

The decline in manufacturing jobs has been the driving force behind the overall decline in the number of jobs in the Buffalo area over the past 30 years. The other sectors of the Buffalo economy have been growing (if fairly slowly) during that time. Once manufacturing jobs become a much smaller part of the Buffalo economy they won't be an overall drag on the employment figures.

Buffalo still has a ways to fall but it is close to becoming stable. It will never again be the giant it was in the middle of the 20th century but it has a chance to be a smaller stable place with slow but positive job growth.

I'm not saying that Buffalo will regain its glory days (it clearly won't) but it won't fall into the abyss either. The coming decade will be hard for most parts of the country but I think Buffalo will do better than most.

[raoul duke]

The decline in manufacturing jobs has been the driving force behind the overall decline in the number of jobs in the Buffalo area over the past 30 years. The other sectors of the Buffalo economy have been growing (if fairly slowly) during that time. Once manufacturing jobs become a much smaller part of the Buffalo economy they won't be an overall drag on the employment figures.

Buffalo still has a ways to fall but it is close to becoming stable. It will never again be the giant it was in the middle of the 20th century but it has a chance to be a smaller stable place with slow but positive job growth.

I'm not saying that Buffalo will regain its glory days (it clearly won't) but it won't fall into the abyss either. The coming decade will be hard for most parts of the country but I think Buffalo will do better than most.

Ok, but good "employment figures" do not provide for a house and disposable income. Good paying jobs do. I'm not disagreeing with the notion that the economy here is evolving away from a manufacturing one. Though, less good paying jobs and more lower paying, less secure jobs, does not a stable economy make. The jobs that are replacing Ford and Chevy and whatnot do not pay anywhere near as well, nor do they have the security associated with those jobs.

[leftWNYbecauseofBS]

Care to explain how "shed[ding]" good paying jobs will make the local economy stable? Are they going to get jobs in hospitals or at schools?

I think over time, loosing these types of jobs could have a positive effect on the region.

Not by leaving but rather allowing new types of jobs to become the focus of "work" for the region. The challenge is politicians continue to campaign on keeping these types of jobs or finding similar types of work.

Trying to keep these existing shops is only delaying the inevitable and anyone who wants to look at the big picture knows that there are not many more out there willing to move. Even so, it is next to impossible to get this type of shop to move to WNY.

I may be biased but I feel that technology is key.

Google and other giants like Yahoo are building MASSIVE data centers. What are they looking for? Cheap land, low power and realistic taxes. Outside of taxes, WNY is PRIME for these.

Now these data centers do not provide a ton of jobs outside of the construction. However, once built, tech companies love to locate close to these centers for the obvious benefits. So when you think of Buffalo being at the center of several regions, it is not that hard to project the benefits it would bring.

However, going this direction would come at a cost. That cost would be telling a LOT of current residents that there really is nothing that can be done for them outside of blowing smoke on the campaign trail. With the power of unions and labor in general, we all can see just why local leaders would have trouble telling the truth.

On a side note....
I do feel there is one opportunity that is starring Buffalo in the face as a last saving grace for "labor" type work.

There was a study done by the Greater Buffalo Niagara Transportation Council that showed a path to create 27,000 jobs. Most of which would be "labor" type jobs. Here is a link.

Essentially, what the report says is there is an opportunity for Buffalo in becoming a transportation and logistics hub. This is due to the overcrowding ports in NYC, NJ and Canada.
This, from what I can tell, would require a huge capitol investment into the region. Not an easy thing to get when leaders are still asking for money to throw at items that are broke. Instead of ending those programs or fixing the problem.

In a perfect world, and I am dreaming here.....


Lackawanna would merge with Buffalo. The entire Bethlehem site would be cleaned up and modified to become the new Port of Buffalo. Multiple shipping channels would be dug and improvements to the existing rail system would be made.

This would free up the industrial waterfront of Buffalo for this "century type jobs" that I mentioned first and would clean up the waterfront in Lackawanna.

[GG716]

Does this mean we are close to the bottom at the local level and the country is following?

[leftWNYbecauseofBS]

Does this mean we are close to the bottom at the local level and the country is following?

??????

[therising]

Before you all get excited - Did anyone bother reading this list? Because, a good rule of thumb is that when you're on a list with the likes of Scranton and Syracuse, you better start worrying.

1 - McAllen, TX
2 - Rochester, NY
3 - Birmingham
4 - Syracuse
5 - Buffalo
6 - New Orleans
7 - Scranton, PA
8 - Grand Rapids
9 - Baton Rouge
10 - El Paso

In other words, this is a list of cities that, are so depressed, that downturns in the national economy don't even effect them.
It should also be pointed out that 20% of our comrades on the lucky list are rebuilding from a hurricane of epic proportions. So, logic would dictate that their values have probably already declined about as much as they can.

[300miles]

In other words, this is a list of cities that, are so depressed, that downturns in the national economy don't even effect them.

What's with all the negative spin therising? Our local economy is doing quite well. We aren't economically "depressed" by any measure. Usually Buffalo takes a dive whenever the rest of the county does. This time we're not. We're actually continuing to grow. Our real estate continues to gain value even while houses across the country are plummeting. We don't have the forclosures resulting from that either. And reports have shown our salaries continue to increase as well in WNY.

Why are you trying to throw turd in the punch bowl?

What is it with WNY'ers that any piece of good news must be immediately twisted into bad news ?

[nickelcityhomes]

Therising is correct in many regards. For the most part, there is nowhere to go but "up" for many of these communities. Property values are increasing in spite of the overriding economic conditions. It's hard to say what is driving the values. The outflow of investor money from depreciating markets may have some impact on the appreciation locally.

On the other had, Detroit, Akron, and Youngstown are not on the list. Even the exceptionally low prices in those markets aren't attracting the same demand as it is in Buffalo/Niagara.

[therising]

Why are you trying to throw turd in the punch bowl?

What is it with WNY'ers that any piece of good news must be immediately twisted into bad news ?

You should know that I'm not usually a negative guy. But, I'm not going to sit around quietly, without explaining the truth.

It's kind of like, when I won the Most Improved Player one year in Little League. Basically, all they were saying was that I didn't suck as bad as last year.

[300miles]

No, because that's not what's going on at all. You are saying the region is depressed, which it is not. That we're "so bad" that the national economy no longer affects us, which isn't true at all. If you're looking to explain the truth... then a good place to start is the truth and not the typical buffalo "oh we must suck" attitude.

And as Nickel pointed out (although not to prove the same point)... we can ALWAYS be worse off. There is no "bottom" where "we can't get any worse". It's a falacy. Look at Detroit.

If you want to explain the truth, then first look at the big picture and honestly try to reason why making a list of Top 10 Growth Markets is somehow a bad thing.

[GG716]

I meant is this the bottom/worst we are going to see at a local level (compared to the rest of the county)?
and that the country itself is falling (compared to the rest of the world) but hasn’t hit it’s bottom/low yet.


The bottom as far as it is going to get. Of cource it CAN always get wose, much wose.